Structural Change Monitoring for Random Coefficient Autoregressive Time Series

A monitoring scheme is proposed to sequentially detect a structural change in random coefficient autoregressive time series of order p (RCA(p)) after a training period of size T. It extends structural change monitoring to RCA(p) time series. The asymptotic properties of our monitoring statistic are established under both the null of no change in parameters and the alternative of a change in coefficient. The finite sample properties are investigated by a simulation study.     

非对称基坑开挖监测位移下数值对比分析

以南京市青奥轴线地下交通工程主隧道基坑非对称开挖水平位移监测数据为依据,对水平位移监测值与ABAQUS数值模拟值进行对比分析。得出结论:墙体水平位移首先是悬臂开挖的墙顶向外发生三角形分布的位移,然后随着支撑的架设,墙体发生转动,数值模拟值与实际监测值基本符合;在开挖面附近的土压力,随着墙体高度的增加而增大;在支撑以上部分,模拟值要小于计算值,而在开挖面以下部分,则模拟值大于计算值;随着悬臂段开挖深度的增加,悬臂段最大土压力值也在逐渐增加,墙底土压力值在逐渐减小。     

Intrapartum cardiotocograph monitoring and perinatal outcomes for women at risk: Literature review

ProblemCaesarean section rates have risen in high-income countries. One of the potential drivers for this is the widespread use of CTG monitoring.BackgroundIntrapartum cardiotocograph monitoring is considered to be indicated for women at risk for poor perinatal outcome.AimThis systematic literature review with meta-analysis examined randomised controlled trials and non-experimental research to determine whether cardiotocograph monitoring rather than intermittent auscultation during labour was associated with changes in perinatal mortality or cerebral palsy rates for high-risk women.MethodsA systematic search for research published up to 2019 was conducted using PubMed, CINAHL, Cochrane, and Web of Science databases. Non-experimental and randomised controlled trial research in populations of women at risk which compared intrapartum cardiotocography with intermittent auscultation and reported on stillbirth, neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality and/or cerebral palsy were included. Relative risks were calculated from extracted data, and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials was undertaken.FindingsNine randomised controlled trials and 26 non-experimental studies were included. Meta-analysis of pooled data from RCTs in mixed- and high-risk populations found no statistically significant differences in perinatal mortality rates. The majority of non-experimental research was at critical risk of bias and should not be relied on to inform practice. Cardiotocograph monitoring during preterm labour was associated with a higher incidence of cerebral palsy.DiscussionResearch evidence failed to demonstrate perinatal benefits from intrapartum cardiotocograph monitoring for women at risk for poor perinatal outcome.ConclusionThere is an urgent need for well-designed research to consider whether intrapartum cardiotocograph monitoring provides benefits.     

A stochastically curtailed two-arm randomised phase II trial design for binary outcomes

Randomised controlled trials are considered the gold standard in trial design. However, phase II oncology trials with a binary outcome are often single-arm. Although a number of reasons exist for choosing a single-arm trial, the primary reason is that single-arm designs require fewer participants than their randomised equivalents. Therefore, the development of novel methodology that makes randomised designs more efficient is of value to the trials community. This article introduces a randomised two-arm binary outcome trial design that includes stochastic curtailment (SC), allowing for the possibility of stopping a trial before the final conclusions are known with certainty. In addition to SC, the proposed design involves the use of a randomised block design, which allows investigators to control the number of interim analyses. This approach is compared with existing designs that also use early stopping, through the use of a loss function comprised of a weighted sum of design characteristics. Comparisons are also made using an example from a real trial. The comparisons show that for many possible loss functions, the proposed design is superior to existing designs. Further, the proposed design may be more practical, by allowing a flexible number of interim analyses. One existing design produces superior design realisations when the anticipated response rate is low. However, when using this design, the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis is sensitive to misspecification of the null response rate. Therefore, when considering randomised designs in phase II, we recommend the proposed approach be preferred over other sequential designs.     

Differential predictors of academic achievement: individual and familial factor interactions with community poverty

We present an analysis of the contexts within which adolescents graduate from high school and enroll in college. Data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health show that adolescents’ school engagement, maternal academic monitoring, and community poverty significantly interact to explain differences in high school graduation and college enrollment rates (n?=?7100). To examine this association, we performed weighted logistic regression analyses, controlling for gender, race, block level unemployment, and block level median income. Findings suggest that protective factors can help youth overcome the challenges associated with community poverty and achieve academically in low and medium levels of poverty, but that youth in high-poverty contexts may need more resources to reach higher levels of academic attainment.     

A novel approach based on multiple correspondence analysis for monitoring social networks with categorical attributed data

In in most cases, the distribution of communications is unknown and one may summarize social network communications with categorical attributes in a contingency table. Due to the categorical nature of the data and a large number of features, there are many parameters to be considered and estimated in the model. Hence, the accuracy of estimators decreases. To overcome the problem of high dimensionality and unknown communications distribution, multiple correspondence analysis is used to reduce the number of parameters. Then the rescaled data are studied in a Dirichlet model in which the parameters should be estimated. Moreover, two control charts, Hotelling’s T² and multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA), are developed to monitor the parameters of the Dirichlet distribution. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated through simulation studies in terms of average run length criterion. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a real case.     

New V control chart for the Maxwell distribution

Control charts have been popularly used as a user-friendly yet technically sophisticated tool to monitor whether a process is in statistical control or not. These charts are basically constructed under the normality assumption. But in many practical situations in real life this normality assumption may be violated. One such non-normal situation is to monitor the process variability from a skewed parent distribution where we propose the use of a Maxwell control chart. We introduce a pivotal quantity for the scale parameter of the Maxwell distribution which follows a gamma distribution. Probability limits and L-sigma limits are studied along with performance measure based on average run length and power curve. To avoid the complexity of future calculations for practitioners, factors for constructing control chart for monitoring the Maxwell parameter are given for different sample sizes and for different false alarm rate. We also provide simulated data to illustrate the Maxwell control chart. Finally, a real life example has been given to show the importance of such a control chart.     

Senior centres in the lives of older Americans: implications for Chinese older adults

As a critical community resource, the senior centre has provided older Americans with a wide array of recreational, nutritional, health, and social service programmes. Funding resources include the Older Americans Act allocations, local organisations and governments, national charities, voluntary associations, and religious associations. The types of programmes offered at a senior centre reflect two models: social agency model or voluntary organisation model. The five most popular programmes are nutrition, health and fitness, recreation, volunteering, and social services. Participation in senior centre activities has positive impacts on the overall well-being of older adult participants. With the rapid growth in the ageing population and improved life expectancy in China, senior centres may serve as a focal point for Chinese older adults by providing a broad spectrum of social services to enhance the well-being of community-dwelling older adults, to support their independence and dignity, and to facilitate ageing in place in later life.